NS3040 -- New Articles For Fall Summer 2018

Trump claims credit he is not due on the economy Larry Summmers, https://www.ft.com/content/493f20de-9959-11e8-88de-49c908b1f264 Trillion Dollar Deficits New Normal https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-trillion-dollar-deficits-could-be-the-new-normal-1533380400 Security Risks of a Trade War with China (last week of class) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-08-06/security-risks-trade-war-china?cid=nlc-fa_fatoday-20180806 The FED and slow wage growth https://www.ft.com/content/fbe7724e-59ae-11e8-806a-808d194ffb75 Martin Wolf Digital Trade spread of knowledge https://www.ft.com/content/1bdcf69c-470c-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb How does the Chinese elite view the world -- for end of class https://www.ft.com/content/c4df31cc-4d26-11e8-97e4-13afc22d86d4 Iran Sanctions Oil Firm https://www.ft.com/content/66777720-479f-11e8-8ae9-4b5ddcca99b3 China trade surplus https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shrinking-trade-surplus-unlikely-to-impress-trump-1532775603 End of Class Martin Wolf How West should judge a rising China https://www.ft.com/content/e30e9ed4-5754-11e8-bdb7-f6677d2e1ce8 The Big Read Digital Trade https://www.ft.com/content/6f0f41e4-47de-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb Greg Ip Productivity data https://www.wsj.com/articles/theres-no-productivity-miracle-hiding-in-the-data-1532516401?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Martin Feldstein -- save low rates for a rainy day https://www.wsj.com/articles/save-low-interest-for-a-rainy-day-1532642350 globalized business and security https://www.ft.com/content/e98ea238-86a5-11e8-96dd-fa565ec55929 http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20180426-federal-it-communications-technology-supply-chain-vulnerable-to-chinese-sabotage-espionage Tech fear behind Trump trade war with China https://www.ft.com/content/40304bea-7eb9-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d Trump trade war damage https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/24/trump-is-poised-to-do-irreparable-harm-to-world-trade-eu-wto/ Martin Wolf China Trade war with US https://www.ft.com/content/dd2af6b0-4fc1-11e8-9471-a083af05aea7 Martin Wolf How China can avoid a trade war with the US https://www.ft.com/content/84d54206-30ac-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03 China or US model which is best for technological progress? https://www.ft.com/content/99fbaf9e-4ef2-11e8-9471-a083af05aea7 US-China -- Tech war behind the trade moves https://www.ft.com/content/40304bea-7eb9-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d Greg Ip Dollar's Dominance Creates Ripples Globally https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-dollarized-world-a-rising-dollar-spells-pain-1525869836?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Greg IP excessive U.S. borrowing -- Fiscal problems ahead https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-fiscal-future-wont-be-like-its-carefree-past-1522244675?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 China Tariffs -- Best to Spend on Technology Research https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/technology/china-trade-tech.html Trump's Protectionism is Futile -- Douglas Irwin https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-trumps-protectionism-is-futile-1527892068?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Greg IP Tax cut and trade deficit https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-tax-cut-president-trump-loves-will-deepen-trade-deficits-he-hates-1524043800?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2 Alan Blinder on Trade Deficits https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-brief-introduction-to-trade-economics-1531074006?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2 US current account imbalances likely to increase https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-increasingly-large-driver-of-global-trade-deficits-imf-reports-1532440799?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Trade Deficit Fiscal Causes https://www.wsj.com/articles/taking-aim-at-a-trade-gap-its-easy-to-miss-the-target-1521993836?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 James Dobbins -- rand Global order will outlast U.S. leadership https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-global-order-will-outlast-u-s-leadership-1532473591?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Adam Posen -- very good https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-07-23/how-trump-repelling-foreign-investment?cid=nlc-fa_fatoday-20180723 Trump policies and defense industry https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/18/trumps-america-first-policy-could-leave-u-s-defense-industry-behind/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Top%205%207/19/18%20-%202&utm_keyword=Top5%20OC Trump's possible Tariffs on Cars https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2018/july/trumps-next-move-tariffs-on-cars/ Soft Brexit http://www.msnbc.com/velshi-ruhle/watch/what-we-can-expect-from-the-uk-s-soft-brexit-plan-1276389955804 Peterson Institute Trump's tariffs on China https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/trumps-latest-200-billion-tariffs-china-threaten-big-blow Trump Tariffs hit multinational supply chains harm US competitiveness https://piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/trump-tariffs-primarily-hit-multinational-supply-chains-harm-us Adam Posen https://piie.com/commentary/op-eds/ill-advised-trade-war-could-turn-out-be-trumps-afghanistan Videos Soft Brexit (video) https://www.ft.com/video/da375110-ce68-4032-894d-de62e40a9b65?playlist-name=editors-picks&playlist-offset=3 More Soft Brexit (video) https://www.ft.com/video/c174deca-9f67-4d94-960e-de0e285939c5?playlist-name=editors-picks&playlist-offset=7 China hits back at Trump tariffs (video) very good https://www.ft.com/video/68769d60-0269-48e0-82d6-ae9750373f3f?playlist-name=editors-picks&playlist-offset=18 China strategy in trade war (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/heres-how-china-can-escalate-a-trade-war-with-the-us/8A972121-C66A-405D-8FF0-8D7760D1DD05.html How trade wars affect workers on the ground -- farms (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/what-the-us-china-trade-war-means-for-workers-on-the-ground/A7690590-4180-4F6E-801D-844FBCE0E284.html Tech arms race driving us China trade dispute (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/the-tech-arms-race-driving-the-us-china-trade-dispute/0BA5481E-C4CC-42C8-AD8A-3DA2806BB6AA.html Ways China gets hands on US technology (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/three-ways-china-gets-its-hands-on-us-tech/18ED2367-40D3-4FBE-979B-83B08452B9A9.html Robots replacing humans (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/how-sewing-robots-may-put-human-hands-out-of-work-moving-upstream/8A0329DB-06F0-4737-A105-8FFC1C06EC92 Bad news for workers in garment sector (video) https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/how-sewing-robots-may-put-human-hands-out-of-work-moving-upstream/8A0329DB-06F0-4737-A105-8FFC1C06EC92 Martin Feldstein Use and Abuse of Tariffs (good) https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-useand-abuseof-tariffs-1530830404?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Greg Ip How to do Protectionism Well https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-shows-how-not-to-be-a-protectionist-1527692912?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=5 Greg Ip tarifs paid by exporters https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-tariffs-hit-u-s-exports-not-just-imports-1531128600?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Greg Ip Uniter to disrupter in Trade https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-turns-from-uniter-to-disrupter-on-global-stage-1529505441?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Greg IP globalizaiton in reverse with trade barriers -- supply chain problems https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trade-barriers-go-up-global-supply-chains-unravel-1530100987?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1 Impact of Chinese Imports on Jobs https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first_quarter_2017/reader-exchange Productivity slow-down https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first_quarter_2017/slowdown-in-productivity-state-vs-national-trend Higher growth requires higher productivity https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2016/higher-gdp-growth-in-the-long-run-requires-higher-productivity-growth Tech industry growth https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/growth-in-tech-sector-returns-to-glory-days-of-the-1990s Workers abroad catching up to US skill levels https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/workers-abroad-are-catching-up-to-us-skill-levels Trade and Terrorism https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/fourth-quarter-2017/impact-terrorism-developing-countries Importance of Advanced Manufacturing https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/fourth-quarter-2017/advanced-manufacturing-vital Martin Tariffs hurt US manufacturing https://www.ft.com/content/f20c1b84-7f8e-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d https://www.ft.com/content/6a322572-7f0d-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d Martin Wolf Trump's Global Trade War https://www.ft.com/content/ba65ac98-8364-11e8-a29d-73e3d454535d Mankiw -- Basic Argument for Free Trade -- Use in class https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/business/trump-economists-trade-tariffs.html America the Unreliable -- countries going ahead and forming trade deals without the US https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/27/opinion/trump-tariffs-allies-trade-deals.html Tariffs hurting US manufacturing https://www.ft.com/content/6a322572-7f0d-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Neil Irwin, New York Times

Neil Irwin Most Americans produce services, not stuff New York Times, March 16, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/16/upshot/most-americans-produce-services-not-stuff-trump-ignores-that-in-talking-about-trade.html

Neil Irwin, US can handle Steel and aluminum tariffs -- real risk is eratic policy New York times May 31, 2018 https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/31/upshot/-us-tariffs-real-economic-risk-is-unpredictability.html

Neil Irwin What What Is the Trade Deficit? It’s not a scorecard, and reducing it won’t necessarily be good for jobs. New York Times June 9, 2018

Protectionism irreversable Rana Foroohar Trump trades on Protectionist Mood Financial Times June 11, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/8af9f008-6b0f-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec

Trump voters may suffer the most from tariffs https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/business/trump-auto-tariffs.html Trump war on WTO https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-war-on-the-wto-1530723098 Can Trump Withdraw From the WTO? RGE June 29, 2018 https://www.roubini.com/thought/can-trump-withdraw-from-the-wto

Trump has a point on Chinese Technology Abuses, Financial Times, June 20 https://www.ft.com/content/874ff152-73a5-11e8-bab2-43bd4ae655dd

Larry Summers critique of Trump trade strategy Financial times June 5, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/4eda86ec-67da-11e8-aee1-39f3459514fd

Setting record straight on Trump trade logic Financial Times June 16 https://www.ft.com/content/2b17f496-6f1f-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

Nick Butler, Issues beyond OPEC Will Drive Oil Prices, Financial Times, June 25, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/b259313e-738b-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601

Long run movements in oil price -- peak demand Financial times June 20, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/a41df112-7080-11e8-92d3-6c13e5c92914

Martin Worlf productivity puzzle Financial Times June 13, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/8bea636a-6d78-11e8-852d-d8b934ff5ffa

Is GE Too Large to Run Financial Times July 1 https://www.ft.com/content/99709110-7adb-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

Trade Wars Hurt US Economy June 22, 2018 https://www.ft.com/content/00ad073a-74bc-11e8-aa31-31da4279a601

Backlash against tariffs on Chinese imports, Financial times June 18 https://www.ft.com/content/7e35b986-7a20-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Problems with Trimp's America First -- neglects supply chains Financial Times June 16 https://www.ft.com/content/e52c9bac-70b9-11e8-92d3-6c13e5c92914